There’s a lot of debate on whether it’s better to rent or own. If you are a renter, I’m sorry to say the return on rent is always negative 100%. After years of renting, you will have nothing to show for your money. Whereas if you own, at least you have a chance of growing your net worth through greater home equity.
I remember when I bought my first 2/2 condo in 2003. I felt a sense of relief that I no longer had to pay ever-rising rents. Even though the $2,300/month mortgage payment was about 15% higher than my previous rent after a 25% down payment, it felt good knowing my costs were generally fixed.
What I’ve recently realized is that many San Francisco and other homeowners over the years have not had to pay a single penny for housing costs. In essence, they’ve lived for free!
What? How is this possible when San Francisco is considered one of the most expensive cities in America?
Let me show you with a friend’s example that doesn’t involve mooching off your parents as an adult child.
Here’s the profile of a 3/2 home that was purchased for $1.3 million in 2011 and sold for $2.2 million in early 2021. He put down 20% and took out a $1,040,000 mortgage at 3.5%. Below are some approximate numbers.
Net cost of living = ($528,000 + $1,100,000) – ($286,000 – $203,000 – $90,000 – $20,000 – $100,000) = $929,000.
If this simple math is right, not only was my friend’s family housing free for eight years but he was also paid $929,000 to live in San Francisco. That’s pretty good value for just living.
Obviously, experiencing a 69% appreciation in his property was a big factor in this equation, but so was not having to pay $528,000 in rent during this time period. Further, one can debate whether paying down $100,000 in principal is truly a negative.
Even if the property only appreciated by 3% a year, my friend would still have been paid over $480,000 to live in San Francisco for eight years.
This example is probably similar to hundreds of thousands of homeowners over the years.
Related: Reinvestment Ideas After Selling A House
Check out this chart about how much money you’ll spend on rent for a median-priced home in various major cities. The calculate is based of about 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, and 40 years of renting.
It’s kind of crazy to see that a San Francisco resident would pay $2,468,000 in rent for a median-priced property by the time he or she turns 60. If you see this figure and live in San Francisco, your goal should be to buy your primary residence as soon as you can based on my 30/30/3 home buying rule.
Is your city on the list? If not, add up how much you’ll end up spending on rent for your desired property if you never buy. I don’t think you’ll like the results.
With such massive amounts paid in rent over one’s lifetime, is it no wonder why the desire to buy property is so strong?
I’d love for property prices to decline by 20% so I can snap up another Golden Gate Heights panoramic view property in San Francisco. Alas, unless I get really lucky, another investment property is not in my cards.
It is amazing that many homeowners have been able to live for free all these years. With the housing market heating up because mortgage rates have plummeted and so many people working from home, housing has become an extremely attractive asset.
Here are some takeaways from this post:
Yes, you get a place to live, but if you buy, you also get a place to live. Once this variable is canceled out, what’s left is the owner’s optionality to sell the asset. Who said high school algebra was a useless course.
Although buying a home is making a concentrated bet with leverage, buying a home may ironically be easier than investing the same amount of money in the stock market. This is because you’re buying a tangible asset that may improve the quality of your life. With stocks, there is no utility. Further, prices could decline out of the blue.
Renting and investing the difference in the stock market and other assets is a great idea. Unfortunately, most people often fail to do so due to a lack of financial discipline. Without a proper automatic invest strategy in place, chances are high the saved difference gets spent.
Over time, the cost to rent rises to barf-inducing levels. Meanwhile, the appreciation of a property also sometimes rises to unbelievable levels. The only way you can survive as a renter is if rents stay flat or go down. Unfortunately, inflation tends to always push rents higher.
Rising rents and rising property prices will crush your financial progress. Therefore, it’s important to at least get neutral real estate by owning your primary residence. You can also relocate to a lower cost of living area.
Staying in a rent-controlled apartment is somewhat akin to working at a safe day job with no upward mobility. You’ll likely never starve, but you’ll likely never get rich either. If you take some risk by buying real estate, you might do very well just like if you decided to start your own business or hop to a different employer. Alternatively, you might go bankrupt if you buy inappropriately. At the end of the day, no risk no reward.
Living for free is another phrase for rising home equity. The more home equity there is, the larger the buffer in case of a recession. Given lenders have significantly tightened their lending standards since the 2009 financial crisis, only the most credit worthy borrowers have bought homes.
When you combine high credit worthiness with record high home equity and low mortgage rates, it’s hard to see another crash in home prices again. The best we can hope for is a 10% – 15% decline window before another recovery.
Once you own your primary residence, you won’t truly know until after you’ve sold your property whether you lived for free all those years or not. In the meantime, you can make educated estimates every year about whether buying or renting made more sense.
If you really want to live for free in the present, you’ve got to figure out a way to make investments that will produce income. Once you’ve got enough passive income to cover all your housing expenses, you are living for free.
The concept of Buy Utility, Rent Luxury (BURL) is one logical strategy. You basically rent in a high cost of living area and invest in real estate in a low cost of living area with a higher rental yield to cover your rent. This can be done through a speciality REIT or through real estate crowdfunding, where I’ve got 18 different commercial real estate investments.
Aggressively saving money on the short end of an inverted yield curve to cover your longer duration borrowing costs is another strategy, especially when the yield curve is inverted.
But the easiest strategy is to simply not rent for life. If you rent for life, you are going to look back 30 years from now with regret. Your kids will also likely hate you for not buying so long ago.
If you’re not willing to build assets for yourself, at least do it for your children. Just make sure the numbers make sense and you can withstand downturns.
Even worse than renting forever is buying at the top and selling at the bottom of the market!
You can buy rental properties to make money given the value of rental income has gone way up in a low-interest rate environment. Low interest rates mean more capital is required to generate the same amount of income.
I’ve bought another rental property during the pandemic because I found a good deal. I’m also building a real estate portfolio for my kids to manage, just in case they can’t find gainful employment.
In addition to buying rental properties, you can invest in real estate crowdfunding through Fundrise. Instead of needing to come up with a big down payment, you can invest as little as $500 into a diversified real estate fund. You’ll generate passive income and diversify your investment exposure. Fundrise is free to sign up and explore.